On Thursday, the expiry of weekly options is going to dominate the proceedings. That said, strike prices above the 10,000 market currently have the highest concentration of Call open interest, which shifted lower from the 10,200 marks. Unless Nifty sees a tactical shift, it is unlikely to move past the 10,000 level even if there is an up-move.
The primary setup remains bearish and any move on the upside will make Niftily vulnerable to selloff at higher levels. Volatility index INDIA VIX slowly extended its rise to 33.3550 by adding 1.18%. On Thursday, the 9,935 and 10,000 levels are likely to act as key resistance points for Nifty while supports should come in lower at 9,810 and 9,705 levels.
All in all, Nifty faces more than once hurdles that can push it on the negative side. On one hand, Nifty is facing a risk from any increase in geopolitical tensions, while on the other hand, the short-term technical setup remains weak. Apart from this, weekly options expiry will continue to dominate the trend and also infuse some volatility in the session.
Given such shaky technical juncture, don’t expect any sustainable rise unless Nifty moves past the 100 DMA, which now stands at 10,132. We reiterate having a cautious outlook for Nifty.
Nifty Bank (20202) Upside to 20936-21139 is a possibility as long as 19456 holds’ the Nifty Bank too opened in the red and traded within the range and has closed mildly in the red…technically now the crucial range is 20667-19466